The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified Nigeria and India among ten countries expected to be the biggest drivers of global economic growth in 2026.
The ranking follows recent comments by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, who said “the balance of power is changing” while reacting to the IMF projections.
According to the IMF report, Nigeria is placed sixth on the list of countries projected to power global economic expansion in 2026, contributing an estimated 1.5 per cent to global real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.
This performance positions Africa’s largest economy ahead of several advanced and emerging nations, including Germany, Brazil and Indonesia. The IMF data also indicates that Nigeria’s projected contribution surpasses the combined input of most European countries.
India was ranked the second-largest contributor to global growth, accounting for 17 per cent, ahead of the United States, which placed third with 9.9 per cent. China is expected to retain its position as the world’s leading growth engine, contributing 26.6 per cent of global economic expansion.
Combined, China and India are projected to drive 43.6 per cent of global economic growth in 2026.
Top 10 Contributors
Other countries on the IMF’s top-10 list include Indonesia (3.8 per cent), Türkiye (2.2 per cent), Saudi Arabia (1.7 per cent), Vietnam (1.6 per cent), Brazil (1.5 per cent) and Germany (0.9 per cent).
The report further underscored the rising dominance of the Asia-Pacific region, which is forecast to account for nearly half of global economic growth, reflecting sustained economic momentum across the region.
Reacting to the figures, Elon Musk shared the IMF data on his official account, noting that “the balance of power is changing,” particularly as India overtakes the United States in projected contributions to global growth in 2026.
The data shows India contributing 17 per cent of global expansion, while China accounts for 26.6 per cent, highlighting Asia’s growing influence in the world economy.
Observers suggest Musk’s comments were deliberate, given his close interest in India’s economic direction. In recent months, Musk has reportedly met twice with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, explored potential factory sites, and considered replicating his Shanghai manufacturing model in India’s vast market of about 1.4 billion people.
Beyond business considerations, analysts say Musk’s remarks reflect a broader shift in global growth patterns, as his companies face slower sales in traditional Western markets. Tesla’s growth in China has reportedly slowed, while Europe continues to grapple with regulatory hurdles.
India’s revised growth forecast of 6.3 per cent, according to the IMF, is viewed as a compelling alternative.
Emerging Markets Surge Ahead
The IMF data also revealed that Germany is expected to contribute only 0.9 per cent to global growth in 2026. The eurozone as a whole is projected to add 2 per cent, while advanced economies collectively are forecast to grow by 1.8 per cent, compared with 4.2 per cent for emerging markets.
Analysts cited by The Tribune noted that this gap is likely to widen over time.
Meanwhile, The Indian Times reported that India’s manufacturing sector posted strong growth in 2025 despite a slowdown in global trade. Manufacturing output increased significantly, while consumer demand remained robust even as inflation stayed near target levels.
The IMF attributed India’s economic expansion largely to strong domestic demand rather than reliance on exports.
Economists say Musk’s observation echoes a long-standing trend: global growth is increasingly being driven by emerging economies outside the West, even as technological leadership remains concentrated in hubs such as Wall Street and Silicon Valley.
Analysts add that the extent of any further shift will depend on India’s ability to sustain reforms, manage fiscal challenges, and convert rapid growth into lasting industrial capacity.