Crude oil shipments to Asia from Europe and major West African producers like Nigeria and Angola are projected to rise by about 200,000 barrels per day in March, reaching 3.72 million bpd, according to data from Kpler.
The shift comes amid ongoing disruptions linked to tensions involving Iran, which have significantly reduced Middle Eastern oil supply. An estimated 10 million barrels per day, roughly 10% of global consumption, have been impacted due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on regional energy infrastructure.
Asia, the world’s largest oil-importing region, has been the hardest hit. The supply squeeze has pushed prices sharply higher, with the Dubai benchmark hitting a record $169.75 per barrel, surpassing the previous Brent crude record of $147.50 set in 2008.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley said increased demand from Asian buyers is diverting supplies away from Europe, tightening availability across global markets. “The supply being diverted east is coming out of the pool that Europe would otherwise use to balance itself,” the analysts noted.
The competition for limited barrels has also driven up premiums. U.S. WTI Midland crude traded at a record $9.50 per barrel above dated Brent for European delivery, significantly higher than pre-conflict levels.
Shipping patterns further reflect the strain. Several tankers carrying diesel and gasoil have been rerouted away from Europe toward Africa and Asia, while others reversed course mid-journey to meet stronger demand in Southeast Asia.
Tight supply conditions are also evident in benchmark pricing. North Sea Forties crude surged to a record $7.20 per barrel premium to dated Brent, while short-term Brent swaps showed steep backwardation, a signal of immediate supply shortages.
“Globally, there are fewer barrels available, so the people who need them are bidding prices up,” said oil analyst Neil Atkinson, formerly of the International Energy Agency.
Meanwhile, Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has increased its contribution to global supply, exporting 950,000 barrels of Cawthorne Blend crude via the newly operational FSO Cawthorne terminal, Nigeria’s first new crude export terminal in five decades.
The evolving market dynamics highlight how geopolitical tensions are reshaping global oil flows, intensifying competition, and driving prices to historic highs.