The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s economic growth projection for 2026 upward to 4.4 per cent, attributing the improvement to stronger macroeconomic conditions and continued reform efforts.
The updated forecast was published in the IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook Update, titled “Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces.” According to the report, Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow steadily from 4.1 per cent in 2024 to 4.2 per cent in 2025, before accelerating to 4.4 per cent in 2026. This represents a 0.2 percentage point increase from the Fund’s October 2025 projection.
The IMF noted that Nigeria’s improved outlook mirrors broader growth expectations across sub-Saharan Africa, where economic expansion is projected at 4.6 per cent in both 2026 and 2027. The regional upturn, the Fund said, reflects ongoing macroeconomic stabilisation and reform initiatives in major economies.
Globally, the IMF forecast growth of 3.3 per cent in 2026, noting that the world economy remains resilient despite lingering uncertainties. The outlook, according to the Fund, reflects a balance between headwinds from shifting trade policies and tailwinds from rising investment in technology and artificial intelligence.
For Nigeria, energy prices were identified as a key factor shaping the 2026 outlook. The IMF projected that energy commodity prices could fall by about seven per cent in 2026 due to weak global demand. However, it added that coordinated production management by OPEC+ and crude stockpiling by China are expected to provide some support for oil prices, limiting further declines.
Despite the improved forecast, the IMF cautioned that downside risks remain. These include escalating geopolitical tensions in regions such as the Middle East and Ukraine, potential disruptions to global supply chains, renewed trade frictions and protectionist policies, as well as high public debt and fiscal deficits that could push long-term interest rates higher.
To maintain growth momentum, the IMF advised Nigerian authorities to rebuild fiscal buffers and continue implementing structural reforms. It also stressed the importance of central bank independence in preserving macroeconomic stability, especially amid global volatility.
The Fund further warned that any discretionary fiscal support should be carefully targeted and temporary in nature.
The IMF concluded that Nigeria’s ability to achieve its 2026 growth target will depend largely on the consistent execution of reforms and the country’s resilience to both domestic and external economic shocks.