Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensate, dropped by 8.3 per cent year-on-year to an average of 1.544 million barrels per day in December 2025, according to figures released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
This represents a decline from the 1.684 million barrels per day recorded in December 2024, underscoring ongoing difficulties in the nation’s oil and gas sector.
Although the NUPRC did not directly outline the reasons for the drop in its report issued on January 19, 2026, industry analysts attributed the fall to factors such as weak investment, ageing production facilities, security challenges and declining investor confidence.
On a month-on-month basis, output also dipped slightly, falling from 1.599 million barrels per day in November 2025 to 1.544 million barrels per day in December.
The data further showed that Nigeria failed to meet its Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production quota of 1.5 million barrels per day. Of the total December output, about 122,385 barrels per day were condensates, which are excluded from OPEC calculations.
As a result, Nigeria’s OPEC-recognised crude oil production stood at approximately 1.422 million barrels per day, below the agreed target.
Budget Benchmark Missed
The report also indicated that the Federal Government fell short of its 2025 budget oil production benchmark of 2.06 million barrels per day. The 2025 budget was based on assumptions of 2.06 million bpd production, an oil price of $75 per barrel and an exchange rate of roughly ₦1,500 to the dollar.
Providing further clarification, the NUPRC stated that daily output in December ranged between 1.52 million and 1.82 million barrels per day, with average production reaching 1,544,345 barrels per day. This comprised 1,421,960 barrels per day of crude oil and 122,385 barrels per day of condensate, representing about 95 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota.
OPEC, in its January 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report, also confirmed a marginal month-on-month decline in Nigeria’s crude oil output, excluding condensates. The cartel reported production of 1.422 million barrels per day in December 2025, down from 1.436 million barrels per day in November.
On a year-on-year basis, OPEC said Nigeria’s crude oil output fell from 1.485 million barrels per day in December 2024 to 1.422 million barrels per day in December 2025, highlighting a sustained downward trend.
Experts Cite Structural Challenges
Commenting on the situation, Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics and Executive Director of the Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, Wumi Iledare, blamed the decline on deep-rooted structural and governance issues.
He pointed to insecurity, the maturity of Nigeria’s oil basin, the absence of fresh licensing rounds for new blocks and policy uncertainty as key factors discouraging investment. Iledare also criticised the selective implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act, calling for stronger leadership and clearer institutional authority to revitalise the sector.