Former head of the British Army, Richard Dannatt has warned that Vladimir Putin may be entering a potentially perilous phase in the war, citing mounting battlefield losses, economic strain and intensifying Western sanctions.
Speaking on the Ukraine: The Latest podcast, Lord Dannatt said the Russian president could soon face significant internal and external pressure.
“I think potentially this is a very dangerous moment for Vladimir,” he said.
He argued that the combined weight of sanctions and recruitment challenges could create serious instability for Moscow.
“The economic sanctions that the West has imposed on him are beginning to bite,” he added. “If that happens and he also finds that he can’t recruit the manpower that he wants and has to go for some kind of conscription, then I think put those things together and he’s going to come under huge pressure.”
According to Western officials, Russia is now reportedly losing troops at a rate higher than it can replace them, a shift not seen since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. Ukrainian counter-offensives have intensified in recent months, with Kyiv claiming Russian casualties have surpassed 1.25 million.
Lord Dannatt suggested that the cumulative strain could begin to influence public opinion inside Russia.
“It may just be the accumulation of those facts together that starts to turn the Russian population, to put questions in their mind: Is our leader really doing the right thing for us? Is this the way of life that we want?” he said.
“Particularly if he has to go to some kind of conscription, I think he’ll be in dead trouble.”
UK Armed Forces minister Al Carns echoed concerns about Moscow’s recruitment efforts, saying financial incentives offered by the Kremlin are becoming less effective as the war drags on.
The Ukraine: The Latest podcast, launched shortly after Russia’s invasion, has become one of the most widely followed daily programmes covering the conflict. Over the course of the war, it has featured interviews with key figures including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, alongside reporting from frontline cities such as Kharkiv and Odesa.
As the conflict moves deeper into its fourth year, analysts say the coming months could prove critical, both militarily and politically for the Kremlin.