Nigeria has earned an estimated ₦5.13 trillion windfall from oil revenue over two months, driven by a sharp increase in global crude prices linked to tensions between the United States and Iran.
The crisis, which began in late February when oil traded below $70 per barrel, pushed prices significantly higher—surpassing $120 at some point. As of the latest data, Brent crude stands around $110 per barrel, while Nigeria’s Bonny Light has climbed to about $134.
The country’s 2026 budget was originally based on a benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, daily production of 1.8 million barrels, and an exchange rate of ₦1,400 to the dollar. However, actual earnings in March and April far exceeded these projections due to the surge in oil prices.
In March, despite production falling below target at 1.55 million barrels per day, higher crude prices boosted daily revenue to approximately ₦201.8 billion, resulting in a windfall of about ₦1.19 trillion for the month.
The gains were even more pronounced in April, as both output and prices increased. With production estimated at 1.7 million barrels per day and prices averaging $127.05 per barrel, daily revenue rose to roughly ₦294.84 billion. This translated to a monthly windfall of about ₦3.94 trillion.
Combined, the two months delivered an estimated ₦5.13 trillion above budget expectations, largely driven by elevated global oil prices rather than improved production levels.
While the development provides short-term fiscal relief for the government, it also exposes Nigeria’s continued reliance on volatile international oil markets. Analysts note that without the price surge, revenues would have been significantly lower, even with similar production levels.
Despite the increased earnings, Nigerians are facing mounting economic pressure, as rising crude prices have triggered higher petrol costs. Fuel prices have climbed to between ₦1,350 and ₦1,400 per litre, with projections suggesting they could exceed ₦1,500 if the Middle East crisis persists.
Industry stakeholders have called on the government to channel part of the windfall into relief measures, including subsidising transportation and supporting vulnerable citizens.
Experts describe the situation as a “double-edged sword”—boosting government revenue while simultaneously worsening the cost of living for ordinary Nigerians.
They also stress the need for long-term reforms, including improved local production, stable domestic pricing mechanisms, and better data systems to support targeted interventions.
Overall, while the oil price surge has strengthened government finances, it has also intensified economic hardship, highlighting the urgent need for balanced and sustainable policy responses.