The Major Osun LGAs That Could Determine Adeleke, Oyebamiji’s Fate

With 167,704 registered voters, Osogbo has the largest electorate of any LGA in Osun, accounting for 7.17 per cent of the state’s register.

The race for Osun Government House could be settled in a handful of local government areas where small shifts in voter support may produce decisive statewide margins for the leading contenders.

With the contest between incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party and APC candidate Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji expected to be closely fought, attention is turning to LGAs with large voter populations, strong party bases and a history of competitive results.

While 30 LGAs will participate in Saturday’s election, some carry considerably greater electoral weight than others. Their voting strength,  political leanings and previous results make them critical to the calculations of the major contenders.

Here are 10 LGAs that could play an outsized role in determining who emerges as Osun governor.

1. Osogbo: The biggest prize

With 167,704 registered voters, Osogbo has the largest electorate of any LGA in Osun, accounting for 7.17 per cent of the state’s register.

Its importance goes beyond its size. As the state capital, Osogbo has considerable political visibility and has historically been a major electoral battleground.

In 2022, Adeleke won the LGA with 30,401 votes, defeating the then APC candidate, Gboyega Oyetola, who scored 22,952-a margin of 7,449 votes.

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For Oyebamiji, reversing that result could provide a substantial boost. For Adeleke, retaining the advantage could help compensate for losses elsewhere.

The LGA is therefore likely to be one of the clearest indicators of which way the election is moving.

2. Olorunda: Another heavyweight in the capital

Olorunda has 123,063 registered voters, giving the two LGAs in the state capital a combined electorate of 290,767, or 12.4 per cent of Osun’s entire register.

The 2022 result was favourable to Adeleke, who polled 21,350 votes against Oyetola’s 18,709.

That was a margin of 2,641 votes-significant in an election that Adeleke eventually won statewide by just 28,344 votes.

Olorunda therefore offers Oyebamiji another opportunity to make inroads into an area where the APC will be seeking to rebuild its previous strength. Adeleke, meanwhile, needs to protect his gains.

3. Ife East: A major electoral reservoir

Ife East has 128,515 registered voters, making it the second-largest LGA in the state by electorate.

Its importance is amplified by the wider Ife axis. Ife East, Ife Central and Ife South together have 317,224 registered voters, representing about 13.6 per cent of Osun’s entire register.

But Ife East was an APC win in 2022. Oyetola polled 19,353 votes against Adeleke’s 18,071, giving the APC a margin of 1,282 votes.

That narrow margin illustrates why the LGA could be crucial this time.

A significant swing in either direction could produce thousands of additional votes or deny them to a candidate, without requiring a dramatic change in the overall voting pattern.

4. Ife Central: APC territory that Adeleke must challenge

Ife Central has 122,454 registered voters, making it the fourth-largest LGA by electorate.

It was another APC victory in 2022, with Oyetola securing 17,880 votes against Adeleke’s 13,532, a margin of 4,348 votes.

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For Oyebamiji, holding or expanding that advantage would provide valuable votes in one of Osun’s largest LGAs.

For Adeleke, improving his performance here could be just as important as defending his traditional strongholds.

The presence of Salaam adds another variable, because even a relatively modest third-party vote can alter the margins between the two leading candidates.

5. Iwo: A traditional battleground

Iwo has 106,814 registered voters, making it the fifth-largest electorate in Osun.

Its 2022 result could hardly have been tighter.

Oyetola won with 17,421 votes, while Adeleke scored 16,914, a difference of only 507 votes.

That makes Iwo one of the clearest swing LGAs in the race.

A 507-vote difference is small enough to be overturned by modest changes in turnout, candidate preference or mobilisation.

Whoever can establish a meaningful advantage in Iwo could gain an important addition to the statewide tally.

6. Ede North: Adeleke’s fortress under pressure

Ede North is not among the very largest LGAs by electorate, with 96,644 registered voters, but its political importance far exceeds its raw numbers.

It is one of Adeleke’s home LGAs and was central to his 2022 victory.

He won Ede North with 23,931 votes, while Oyetola received 9,603, giving Adeleke a commanding 14,328-vote advantage.

The question in 2026 is whether Adeleke can reproduce that level of dominance.

Oyebamiji will be looking to reduce the deficit, while Adeleke will want to preserve what remains one of his most valuable sources of votes.

The LGA also illustrates why the election cannot be judged simply by voter population. A candidate can gain more from a smaller LGA by winning it overwhelmingly than from a larger LGA where the vote is split.

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7. Ede South: Adeleke’s biggest home advantage

With 67,729 registered voters, Ede South is smaller than many of the other LGAs on this list.

But its  political significance is enormous.

In 2022, Adeleke scored 19,438 votes against Oyetola’s 5,704,  a staggering margin of 13,734 votes.

Together, Ede North and Ede South currently account for 164,373 registered voters, about seven per cent of the state’s electorate.

Oyebamiji does not necessarily need to win Ede South, but substantially reducing Adeleke’s margin could have an important effect on the statewide arithmetic.

For Adeleke, maintaining a commanding advantage in both Ede LGAs would give his campaign a substantial cushion.

8. Irewole: Oyebamiji’s home turf

Irewole has 96,528 registered voters and is particularly important because Oyebamiji hails from Ikire in the LGA.

The APC also won Irewole in 2022. Oyetola scored 18,198 votes, compared with Adeleke’s 14,216, giving the APC a margin of 3,982 votes.

That makes the LGA a natural test of Oyebamiji’s personal political strength.

A decisive APC victory could help compensate for losses in other parts of Osun West. But if Adeleke narrows the gap significantly or if Salaam takes a meaningful share of the vote, the political significance of Irewole could become even greater.

9. Ifelodun: The swing that could matter

Ifelodun has 94,870 registered voters, putting it among Osun’s larger electorates.

Its 2022 result went to Adeleke, but only narrowly: he polled 17,107 votes against Oyetola’s 16,068, a difference of just 1,039 votes.

That makes Ifelodun a classic marginal LGA.

A shift of a few thousand votes could change the statewide calculation, particularly if the final contest between Adeleke and Oyebamiji is decided by a narrow margin.

10. Ilesa East: Another major APC test

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Ilesa East has 89,491 registered voters, making it one of the state’s larger voting blocs.

The LGA favoured the APC in 2022, when Oyetola polled 13,452 votes against Adeleke’s 10,969, a margin of 2,483 votes.

Its importance is reinforced by the broader Ijesa axis. Ilesa East, Ilesa West, Atakunmosa East, Atakunmosa West and Obokun together have more than 332,000 registered voters.

A strong APC showing across the axis could provide Oyebamiji with a substantial base, while Adeleke will be seeking to prevent the region from becoming a large source of opposition votes.

The 10 LGAs above collectively illustrate the complexity of Saturday’s contest.